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Scenario 3: localization
Localization is based on the idea that any successful approach to climate change on the scale of collapse must deal with food and shelter. Favorable conditions for the scenario are based on the large number of community experiments already underway around the world some quite extensive. Localization can be done minimally to meet needs, or more extensively to include attractiveness. This evolves towards what is called Gardenworld. Gardens have been highly esteemed and appreciated throughout all cultures, combining both basic needs and high cultural aspirations.
The conditions that give rise to localization are likely to be the climate-induced failure of supply chains and infrastructure that have supported the community before. As these collapse and food and energy become scarce, people will gather in spontaneous patterns that give rise to primitive and nostalgic governance, simply by dealing with and by those who speak the loudest. The more the community has previously assessed its resources, the smoother this process will be. Obviously, localization means detachment from much of the rest of the world.
Localization depends upon the availability of soil, water, garden tools, seeds, people willing to do the work, and climate conditions favorable to plant growth. It is clear tat many places in the world are not favorable and successful experiments need to deal with migrations from unsuccessful localizations. Trade will emerge as a complexifying necessary activity once the scavenging of the extensive remains of the old culture has been exhaustively picked over.
Localization tending toward Gardenworld has the potential to lead to a new civilization. Think of the transition from Rome to Christianity.