Things are happening fast. For example this new paper by James Hansen.
Abstract
Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300–350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C, which is reduced to 8°C by today’s human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring. However, decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. Current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.
Discussion of the paper at (picture is not me!)
OK, what to do? I am sticking with Gardenworld as a plausible and attractive interim goal for our activities in trying to survive. Gardenworld adds aesthetics to food and shelter. Any awareness of farming shows that farmers, small and large pay attention to where plow lines end or turn, where wells are placed and how farm buildings are oriented on the land. The addition of aesthetic concerns, pleasing to the eye and walking on the ground, put Gardenworlds, blending attractive gardens with adjacent shelter amplified with folk Art approaches to enhancements puts Gardenworld projects at the front of efforts to succeed at least for a while, amidst the available patchwork of plausible projects.
The effects of climate change will be patchwork on the planet. There will be many spots where survival even with grace will be found. We do not know what percentage of the world will be habitable but we can make good guesses, especially on where survival based on local resources will not be available.
Our effort should be on securing now as many possible inhabitable places as possible. Our Titanic is sinking, but much slower, and given the time we can do a better job of supplying and distributing the lifeboats.
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A few words have to be said about the Middle East. Just like climate, elites let things fester. Both were obvious years ago. Compassion plus imagination plus energy plus education…