Arnold Toynbee wrote a 13 vol A Study of History. Widely acclaimed theen but not much read since, and criticized by many in the world of academic history. I picked up vol 1 in the Glendale Public library when I was in High School. 28 failed civilizations!!! of which I had never heard of but a few. Put it on the shelf and never looked back .. Until a few weeks ago when the talk of our civilization (assumption alert) failing showed up in conversations I was having.
Let me give a quote as a exmple o the way he is thinking. I may come back with more on the "new circumstances" logic. All the cvilizatins he describes failed, but to exist they had to be at time successful. So thre are no examples not failing except where the story is incomplete, as in our own.
“(4) THE STIMULUS OF PRESSURES
We have now to examine cases in which the impact takes the different form of a continuous external pressure. In terms of political geography the peoples, states or cities which are exposed to such pressure fall, for the most part, within the general category of ‘marches’ or frontier provinces, and the best way to study this particular kind of pressure empirically is to make some survey of the part played by exposed marches, in the histories of the communities to which they belong, in comparison with the part played by more sheltered territories in the interior of the domains of the same communities.
In the Egyptiac World
On no less than three momentous occasions in the history of the Egyptiac Civilization the course of events was directed by Powers originating in the south of Upper Egypt; the foundation of the United Kingdom circa”
“3200 B.C., the foundation of the universal state circa 2070 B.C., and its restoration circa 1580 B.C., were all carried out from this narrowly circumscribed district; and this seed-bed of Egyptiac empires was in fact the southern march of the Egyptiac World which was exposed to pressure from the tribes of Nubia. During the latter course of Egyptiac history, however— the sixteen centuries of twilight between the decline of the New Empire and the ultimate extinction of the Egyptiac Society in the fifth century after Christ—political power reverted to the Delta, which was the march confronting both Northern Africa and Southwestern Asia, as persistently as it had been apt to revert to the southern march during the preceding two thousand years. Thus the political history of the Egyptiac World, from beginning to end, may be read as a tension between two poles of political power which in every age were located respectively in the southern and in the northern march. There are no examples of great political events originating at points in the interior.
Can we offer any reason why the influence of the southern march predominated in the first half of the time-span of Egyptiac[…]”
Excerpt From
A Study of History: Abridgement of Volumes I-VI (Royal Institute of International Affairs)
Does he find examples of civilizations that "run in to new circumstance," manage to adapt, and don't fail? What characterizes them?
Let me give a quote as a exmple o the way he is thinking. I may come back with more on the "new circumstances" logic. All the cvilizatins he describes failed, but to exist they had to be at time successful. So thre are no examples not failing except where the story is incomplete, as in our own.
“(4) THE STIMULUS OF PRESSURES
We have now to examine cases in which the impact takes the different form of a continuous external pressure. In terms of political geography the peoples, states or cities which are exposed to such pressure fall, for the most part, within the general category of ‘marches’ or frontier provinces, and the best way to study this particular kind of pressure empirically is to make some survey of the part played by exposed marches, in the histories of the communities to which they belong, in comparison with the part played by more sheltered territories in the interior of the domains of the same communities.
In the Egyptiac World
On no less than three momentous occasions in the history of the Egyptiac Civilization the course of events was directed by Powers originating in the south of Upper Egypt; the foundation of the United Kingdom circa”
“3200 B.C., the foundation of the universal state circa 2070 B.C., and its restoration circa 1580 B.C., were all carried out from this narrowly circumscribed district; and this seed-bed of Egyptiac empires was in fact the southern march of the Egyptiac World which was exposed to pressure from the tribes of Nubia. During the latter course of Egyptiac history, however— the sixteen centuries of twilight between the decline of the New Empire and the ultimate extinction of the Egyptiac Society in the fifth century after Christ—political power reverted to the Delta, which was the march confronting both Northern Africa and Southwestern Asia, as persistently as it had been apt to revert to the southern march during the preceding two thousand years. Thus the political history of the Egyptiac World, from beginning to end, may be read as a tension between two poles of political power which in every age were located respectively in the southern and in the northern march. There are no examples of great political events originating at points in the interior.
Can we offer any reason why the influence of the southern march predominated in the first half of the time-span of Egyptiac[…]”
Excerpt From
A Study of History: Abridgement of Volumes I-VI (Royal Institute of International Affairs)
Toynbee, Arnold J.
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