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There are several plausible paths to the future that depend upon our choices now.
The first is an attempt to hold on. The earth heats, migration wars are provoked, fires, floods, and plagues undermine the confidence everyone had. This plausible scenario fits in with dystopian nightmares. It is seriously possible because we have no actionable plan as to what to do. We have policys but not actions. Cutting co2 means cutting its use, a use that pollutes the air and runs some kind of machine, transportation, cooling or heating primarily. Stopping these means shutting down or curtailing those uses which means curtailing businesses and the heating and cooling of living spaces. But no one wants to be the first to say this must happen. So we drift downhill.
The second plausible path is the technologists’ dream: all evolving local data of production, consumption, and the health system will be summed up into big data and managed centrally with algorithms. This spiderlike system seizes the opportunity for its development from food production, where the use of land, fertilizer, water, seeds, soil conditions and needs are summed up and big data agribusiness owns the whole. Silicon Valley, most universities, and the banks want us to go there. Gardenworld could be a part of this future since food and habitat will still be required. Thinking big, we need to be aware that the idea is afoot that we should give up on living outside and use our energy to heat and air condition and “purify” inside living. Think of Mars exported to earth. Techno-utopian vision is just an extension of Amazon being able to figure out what book you would most like next. Such a system can choose the congressperson who would best represent your desires better than you can. If you let the computer make your choices, what then do you have left of yourself?
The third path involves local reintegration of food and habitat. Anxious and hungry crowds could move rapidly to decentralization as the search for food rapidly becomes essential and hunger unbearable. Perhaps even direct democracy will emerge when their intent is to blend habitat and food production in attractive communities. I am calling this Gardenworld and I hope most people desire to be intelligent, educated and artistic, useful and in relationships. Jefferson’s “happiness” in the Declaration comes from the Scottish Enlightenment: the idea that the more happenings in your life, the greater the number of roles that engage your talents and connect you to reality: baseball coach for little league, assistant in Sunday service at your church, volunteer fire department, job, husband, father, voter. The modern tendency to read “happiness” as consumer bliss is way off from Jefferson’s. The dark side of localization would be local mafias giving people security in exchange for loyalty and work. We face these three paths, perhaps in combination.
— Welcome to reality.
— Don’t worry, I am just passing through
— -Strauss’s Capriccio, 1941
2452. plausible scenarios.
Hi Douglass --- It occurs to me that starting #3 now, _before_ the hurricane lands, might be the best path forward. Do you have a plan for starting Gardenworld now?
Douglas Carmichael, I received your 'Plausible Scenarios' through Lloyd Helferty's distribution. Are you familiar with all humanity's 'indigenous' (Latin 'self-generating') worldwide long-time (100s of 1000s of years of 3rd path integrating Food & Habitat?
BIGGER PICTURE 3-dimensional POLYCULTURE ORCHARDS versus artificial labour-intensive 2-D AGRICULTURE What the world is missing since Babylonian Semite, Assyrian, Greek, Roman then European 'exogenous' (Latin 'other-generated') colonization & introduction of 2-dimensional 'agriculture' (L 'ager' = 'field') is the deep sustainable polyculture-orchard-food-production-efficiencies of its original Slavic 'indigenous' (L 'self-generating') peoples. Petr Kropotkin touches on these indigenous efficiencies in his opus major 'Mutual-Aid', with the notation about how the indigenous peoples that he lived with in Siberia, were working one hour per day in order to meet their livelihood needs & most of these can be classified as refugees from their original homes & biospheres invaded by the inefficient colonists. Through Polyculture Orchards, with such as Oak, Butternut & all levels of tree seeds, fruit, bushes, vines, vegetables, herbs, mushrooms etc all mixed & 'self-generating' (meaning of 'indigenous')Humanity can achieve food security, environmental abundance, wildlife habitat & modify climate to warmer in winter & cooler in summer, stable flowing rivers, streams, lakes etc.
Here are three films we produced on Polyculture techniques. https://sites.google.com/site/indigenecommunity/design/1-how-to-grow-your-own-raw-vegan-food-garden
POLYCULTURE ORCHARDS Studies of the worldwide indigenous 3-D Polyculture Orchard 'Sylvalizations' going back beyond the 7000 year threshold of 'civilizations'. First Nations cultivated Polyculture Orchards were massive harvesters at 92 - 98% photosynthesis of solar energy converted into food, materials, energy & water-cycle. Its considered now that; polyculture (agro-forestry, forest-gardens etc) is 100 times (10,000%) more productive than 2-D 'agriculture' (Latin 'ager' = 'field'). Considering the importance of food production as the foundation for all human economy, its absolutely important that; farmers, agri-business corporations, universities, government policies & all aligned food systems begin to align with & benefit from the abundance of the tree-based biosphere yet their industry programmed disbelief leaves them incapable of even looking at the data. If Europeans 'immigrate' instead of continuing to 'invade', we can still learn how to live abundantly in all regards through the auspices of First Nations & remaining 'indigenous' peoples worldwide. We have quite a clean-up not only of the environment but of our colonized minds & economy. https://sites.google.com/site/indigenecommunity/design/1-indigenous-welcome-orchard-food-production-efficiencies
SYLVALIZATION CALCULATIONS Agriculture only photosynthesizes 2 - 8% of solar energy reflecting over 90% back into the troposphere where it pushes winds from the continent to the sea. At the Sahara/Sahel Latitudes of less than 30 degrees north, the sun is so hot it burns 2-D agriculture. Tree roots descend 10s of metres as deep as the canopy into the earth's substrate where they mine minerals, pump water & develop nutrient extensive colonies. Continental cold spots created through complete photosynthesis cause warm moist ocean winds to be drawn inland (warm to cold) where 60% of moisture transfer is through condensation of warm moisture laden wind onto trillions of square kilometres of fractal leaf & bark surfaces. Only 40% of water is transferred as rain/snow. 'Agriculture' 2-8% photosynthesis reflects 95% of solar energy, which pushes winds from the continent towards the sea causing permanent desert. Sahara, Gobi, Atacama etc. deserts are all created by human agriculture including exploitation of animals such as domesticated goats, sheep, cattle, pigs etc. Indigenous peoples worldwide did not exploit domestic animals but lived in collaboration with these other tree & biosphere tending specialists. https://sites.google.com/site/indigenecommunity/design/1-polyculture-orchards